Western Union Stock Outperformed S&P500 Over The Last One Month, What’s Next?

The Western Union Company stock (NYSE: WU) has gained 7.8% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 2%). Further, the stock increased 6.9% in the last month vs a 5.6% fall in the broader markets. Overall, the stock has gained in the near term, as compared to the decline in the S&P500 index.

The company recently released its fourth-quarter results, surpassing the earnings estimates but slightly missing the revenue expectations. It posted total revenues of $1.3 billion – up 1% y-o-y. It was primarily driven by a 22% rise in the business solutions segment, almost offset by a marginal drop in the Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) revenues. Notably, C2C generates more than 85% of the companies’ top-line. That said, the digital money transfer revenues, which constitutes 24% of the C2C segment, grew 13% y-o-y in the quarter. Further, the operating margin increased from 18% to 25% driven by lower expenses, leading to a 40% y-o-y rise in the operating income. Altogether, WU’s top-line increased 5% y-o-y to $5.1 billion and operating income improved 16% y-o-y to $1.1 billion in FY2021. This was the main reason behind the positive investor sentiment toward the stock.

Now, is WU stock set to rise further, or could we expect some decline? We believe that there is a 48% chance of a rise in The Western Union Company stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on The Western Union Company Stock Chance of Rise.

Additionally, if you are considering Western Union’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for Western Union’s valuation.

Twenty-One Day: WU 6.9%, vs. S&P500 -5.6%; Outperformed market

(11% likelihood event; 48% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• The Western Union Company stock gained 6.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 5.6%
• A change of 6.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 11% likelihood event, which has occurred 278 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 278 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 134 occasions
• This points to a 48% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: WU 4.4%, vs. S&P500 -2.6%; Outperformed market

(15% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• The Western Union Company stock increased 4.4% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 2.6%
• A change of 4.4% or more over ten trading days is a 15% likelihood event, which has occurred 388 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 388 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 191 occasions
• This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: WU 7.8%, vs. S&P500 -2%; Outperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 39% probability of rise over next five days)

• The Western Union Company stock gained 7.8% over a five-day trading period ending 02/14/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 2%
• A change of 7.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 28 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
• Of these 28 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 11 occasions
• This points to a 39% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Feb 2022

MTD [1] 2022

YTD [1] 2017-22

Total [2] WU Return 4% 11% -9% S&P 500 Return -2% -7% 97% Trefis MS Portfolio Return 1% -9% 258% [1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 2/15/2022

[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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