Folks watch a tv alongside a road in Khan Yunis within the southern Gaza Strip on Jan. 15, 2025, amid the continuing battle within the Palestinian territory between Israel and Hamas.
Bashar Taleb | AFP | Getty Photos
President Donald Trump’s suggestion that Egypt and Jordan soak up Palestinians from the war-ravaged Gaza Strip is more likely to be met with a tough “no” from the 2 U.S. allies and the Palestinians themselves who worry Israel would by no means enable them to return.
Trump floated the concept on Saturday, saying he would urge the leaders of the 2 Arab nations to soak up Gaza’s now largely homeless inhabitants, in order that “we simply clear out that entire factor.” He added that resettling Gaza’s inhabitants “could possibly be non permanent or long run.”
“It is actually a demolition website proper now,” Trump mentioned, referring to the huge destruction attributable to Israel’s 15-month navy marketing campaign in opposition to Hamas, now paused by a fragile ceasefire.
“I would slightly become involved with among the Arab nations, and construct housing in a unique location, the place they’ll perhaps dwell in peace for a change,” Trump mentioned.
There was no quick remark from Egypt, Jordan, Israel or Palestinian officers.
The thought is more likely to be welcomed by Israel, the place Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right governing companions have lengthy advocated what they describe because the voluntary migration of huge numbers of Palestinians and the reestablishment of Jewish settlements in Gaza.
Human rights teams have already accused Israel of ethnic cleaning, which United Nations consultants have outlined as a coverage designed by one ethnic or non secular group to take away the civilian inhabitants of one other group from sure areas “by violent and terror-inspiring means.”
A historical past of displacement
Earlier than and through the 1948 battle surrounding Israel’s creation, some 700,000 Palestinians — a majority of the prewar inhabitants — fled or have been pushed from their properties in what’s now Israel, an occasion they commemorate because the Nakba — Arabic for disaster.
Israel refused to permit them to return as a result of it will have resulted in a Palestinian majority inside its borders. The refugees and their descendants now quantity round 6 million, with massive communities in Gaza, the place they make up the vast majority of the inhabitants, in addition to the Israeli-occupied West Financial institution, Jordan, Lebanon and Syria.
Within the 1967 Mideast battle, when Israel seized the West Financial institution and Gaza Strip, 300,000 extra Palestinians fled, principally into Jordan.
The decades-old refugee disaster has been a significant driver of the Israeli-Palestinian battle and was one of many thorniest points in peace talks that final broke down in 2009. The Palestinians declare a proper of return, whereas Israel says they need to be absorbed by surrounding Arab nations.
Many Palestinians view the newest battle in Gaza, during which total neighborhoods have been shelled to oblivion and 90% of the inhabitants of two.3 million have been pressured from their properties, as a brand new Nakba. They worry that if massive numbers of Palestinians go away Gaza, then they too might by no means return.
Steadfastly remaining on one’s land is central to Palestinian tradition, and was on vivid show in Gaza on Sunday, when hundreds of individuals tried to return to probably the most closely destroyed a part of the territory.
A purple line for Egypt and Jordan
Egypt and Jordan fiercely rejected the concept of accepting Gaza refugees early within the battle, when it was floated by some Israeli officers.
Each nations have made peace with Israel however help the creation of a Palestinian state within the occupied West Financial institution, Gaza and east Jerusalem, territories Israel captured within the 1967 Mideast battle. They worry that the everlasting displacement of Gaza’s inhabitants might make that inconceivable.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has additionally warned of the safety implications of transferring massive numbers of Palestinians to Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula, bordering Gaza.
Hamas and different militant teams are deeply rooted in Palestinian society and are more likely to transfer with the refugees, which might imply that future wars could be fought on Egyptian soil, one thing that might unravel the historic Camp David peace treaty, a cornerstone of regional stability.
“The peace which we now have achieved would vanish from our palms,” el-Sissi mentioned in October 2023, after Hamas’ assault on southern Israel triggered the battle. “All for the sake of the concept of eliminating the Palestinian trigger.”
That is what occurred in Lebanon within the Seventies, when Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Group, the main militant group of its time, reworked the nation’s south right into a launchpad for assaults on Israel. The refugee disaster and the PLO’s actions helped push Lebanon right into a 15-year civil battle in 1975. Israel invaded twice and occupied southern Lebanon from 1982 till 2000.
Jordan, which clashed with the PLO and expelled it underneath related circumstances in 1970, already hosts greater than 2 million Palestinian refugees, the vast majority of whom have been granted citizenship.
Israeli ultranationalists have lengthy instructed that Jordan be thought of a Palestinian state in order that Israel can preserve the West Financial institution, which they view because the biblical heartland of the Jewish folks. Jordan’s monarchy has vehemently rejected that situation.
Can Trump pressure allies to simply accept refugees?
That is dependent upon how critical Trump is concerning the concept and the way far he’s ready to go.
U.S. tariffs — one in all Trump’s favourite financial instruments — or outright sanctions could possibly be devastating for Jordan and Egypt. The 2 nations obtain billions of {dollars} in American assist annually, and Egypt is already mired in an financial disaster.
However permitting an inflow of refugees may be destabilizing. Egypt says it’s presently internet hosting some 9 million migrants, together with refugees from Sudan’s civil battle. Jordan, with a inhabitants of lower than 12 million, is internet hosting over 700,000 refugees, primarily from Syria.
U.S. stress would additionally threat alienating key allies within the area with whom Trump has had good relations — not solely el-Sissi and Jordan’s King Abdullah II, however the leaders of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, all of whom help the Palestinian trigger.
That will doubtlessly complicate efforts to dealer a historic settlement between Saudi Arabia and Israel to normalize relations, one thing Trump tried to do throughout his earlier time period and expects to finish in his present one.
