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The price of constructing Britain’s Excessive Pace 2 railway has been estimated at as much as £66bn, which is a £9bn enhance on a earlier calculation, in a paper produced this yr by the troubled mission’s administration.
A Division for Transport report on Tuesday will cite an HS2 board paper from June which put price of the mission at between £54bn and £66bn in 2019 costs, in response to folks accustomed to the doc.
That marks a giant enhance from November final yr, when the federal government revealed HS2’s official estimate of the price of the rail line between London and Birmingham had risen to between £49bn and £57bn in 2019 costs.
If inflation is taken under consideration, the newest estimate of as much as £66bn could be near £80bn in right now’s costs.
Final yr’s official estimate of between £49bn and £57bn got here regardless of the then Conservative authorities slashing the scheme in half by axing the northern leg of HS2 from Birmingham to Manchester, in a determined try to economize.
The federal government will dispute the estimate of as much as £66bn, saying it isn’t endorsed by the transport division, in response to officers.
One official stated the determine was not a proper HS2 calculation however fairly a casual estimate based mostly on uncooked knowledge. However the newest estimate highlights how the price of Britain’s flagship transport mission seems to be uncontrolled.
Mark Wild, HS2’s new chief government, is finishing up a overview of the scheme’s price ticket.
He’s anticipated to take no less than 4 or 5 months to finish the work. “I wouldn’t be stunned if Mark comes up with a determine north of £80bn as soon as he’s received to grips with the rising prices and inflation and all the remaining,” stated one trade determine.
In October the then transport secretary Louise Haigh introduced Wild could be “assessing the present place on price, schedule and tradition, and offering an motion plan to ship the remaining work as affordably as attainable, together with at a sensible funds and schedule”.
Wild can even search to renegotiate a number of the contracts which officers instructed have left HS2 “over a barrel”.
His overview is more likely to coincide with the publication of the Treasury’s three-year spending overview in June, at which level HS2 is more likely to be re-costed to take account of inflation.
HS2 has been stricken by delays and value overruns ever because it was given the go-ahead by ministers greater than a decade in the past, with administration blaming points together with cost-plus contracts, a rise in tunnelling and issues with floor circumstances.
The worth tag for the road between London and northern England was put at £33bn when it was authorised in 2012.
The DFT and HS2 have been approached for remark.
