With only a few days left within the 2024 marketing campaign, polling skilled Frank Luntz recommended we’ve reached the restrict on how a lot polls can really inform us about who will win the presidential election.
Opinion polls are so shut that it’s not possible to determine the mindset of voters, he advised CNN. In the meantime, any voters who’re nonetheless undecided at this late stage are unlikely to vote for both Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
“I’m not trying as a lot on the polling anymore as a result of that’s decided,” Luntz added. “I don’t consider there are anymore undecideds. There’s nonetheless non-committeds. There are nonetheless persuadables. However when you’re undecided, you reject each candidates. You don’t like them. You’re not gonna be voting for them.”
Reasonably than persevering with to dissect recent polling information, he’s attempting to determine what turnout might be and is watching what number of younger girls particularly will present up, he defined.
If that demographic makes up an even bigger share of the general citizens, then that’s nice information for Harris and it might “propel her,” Luntz stated.
That’s because the vp has made abortion rights and girls’s well being a cornerstone of her marketing campaign messaging.
The opposite voters that he’s watching intently are Latinos, who’re voting in good numbers within the swing states of Arizona and Nevada, the place they may very well be decisive.
Early voting information reveals that Pennsylvania has seen a surge in Democratic girls who didn’t vote in 2020 however are casting ballots on this cycle. However in Arizona, Republican males are main the brand new voters heading to the polls early.
An X issue is Trump’s rally final month at Madison Sq. Backyard, which may have turned the race round in Harris’s favor. In the course of the occasion, comic Tony Hinchcliffe referred to as Puerto Rico “a floating island of rubbish in the course of the ocean,” sparking a backlash amongst Latinos.
Including to limits on polling’s potential to forecast the election is the observe document from 2016 and 2020, when most polls undercounted Trump supporters.
One rationalization was that pro-Trump voters have been reluctant to inform pollsters how they have been voting. However Luntz doesn’t assume that’s a think about 2024.
“I don’t consider on this so-called shy Trump voter this time,” he stated. “Trump persons are not afraid to voice their perspective. And all the main focus teams I’ve been doing as much as proper now, Trump persons are very loud, very vocal, very prepared to acknowledge who they voted for or will vote for, and really prepared to take part.”
After pollsters underestimated Trump within the earlier elections, a key query is whether or not they’re now overcompensating and going too far to account for hidden Trump voters, “and that distorts the information,” Luntz added.
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