Market Outlook #260 (twenty first March 2024)
Whats up and welcome to the 260th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I can be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, Fantom, Illuvium and LooksRare, a few which have been reader requests. It’s a barely shorter publish this week specializing in extra of the actions of the majors – again to recurrently scheduled programming from Monday.
As ever, in case you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know through e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $65,405
Market Cap: $1.285trn
Ideas: Nicely, what just a few days it has been…
If we start by wanting on the weekly for BTC/USD, we are able to see that value closed final week proper under the earlier all-time excessive at $68.4k, having depraved into recent highs at $73.7k earlier than rejecting. Worth has since additionally rejected off that weekly open and bought off in direction of $59.2k, bouncing above it this week and now consolidating proper round prior resistance turned assist at $64.9k, which is a large degree to carry: this was the April 2021 excessive and holding above it right here would look very very like the breakout, rejection and retest from the earlier cycle’s all-time excessive break. Additional, holding right here confirms that the present parabola stays intact, main to cost discovery in April and Could till we see the parabola break sooner or later. On this timeframe, there actually isn’t rather a lot to be involved with simply but. We now have a daily pull-back from crucial degree on the chart after an enormous run-up that constructed up a whole lot of leverage out there. This has just about been eviscerated this previous couple of weeks and it’s now a case of holding these greater timeframe assist ranges and persevering with greater, in my opinion. Now, if we have been to lose the $59k degree and shut the weekly under it, that may begin to look extra regarding – the truth is, I’d count on that to result in a parabola break shortly after and thus seemingly a for much longer interval of consolidation and chop earlier than continuation greater. One factor so as to add right here can also be that there’s nothing but indicative of exhaustion on this timeframe: spot quantity is rising and momentum indicators are making higher-highs.
If we drop into the day by day, I’ve marked out three situations I’m contemplating right here. The primary is essentially the most bullish, which is {that a} higher-low was marked out this week at $60.7k, above the $59.2k swing-low, with that bullish engulfing resulting in the formation of a higher-low within the subsequent few days above $61k, after which a breakout and reclaim of $69k, turning that into assist earlier than value discovery. The second situation is that regardless of the bullish engulfing, value in the present day has rejected on the prior all-time highs and failed to make use of that momentum to interrupt above $68.9k, rejecting and turning decrease. This might mark out a lower-high inside this construction and result in a flush of this week’s low, inflicting a small liquidation cascade by way of $59.2k into $58k earlier than a pointy reversal begins from there again in direction of all-time highs in April, protecting the parabola intact. The third situation is that we proceed to fall from right here by way of $61k, type one other lower-high under $65k after which break the parabola, closing under $58k – this extra bearish trajectory would result in an extended interval of consolidation and chop, with costs doubtlessly going as little as $48k earlier than marking out a backside in summer time after which starting a brand new parabola from there into value discovery and past. Actually, at current I’ve no certainty on any of those three, but when we begin to shut the day by day under $64.9k and switch that degree into resistance intra-week, I’d count on the second situation to change into the most certainly, liquidating a bunch of keen longs that jumped in after that bullish engulfing. I believe the longer consolidation is actually believable, however I’m presently leaning in direction of that being the least seemingly at current of the three. It’ll change into extra clear if we do get under $61k and see no actual response from bulls…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $3442 (0.05266 BTC)
Market Cap: $413.035bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see that value rejected at reclaimed resistance round $3950 after which closed final week simply above $3600, persevering with to unload this week under prior assist at $3580 into $3034, earlier than bouncing and now consolidating round $3440. There’s completely nothing bearish about this construction on the weekly, with rising quantity and momentum with no indicators of exhaustion. At current, this appears to be like like a regular pull-back following 6 weeks of rallying. In reality, we might pull again into $2721 and type a higher-low there and it could nonetheless look fairly good on this timeframe. That mentioned, I don’t assume the market goes to be form sufficient to reward you $2700, however it illustrate the purpose of ETH’s structural power right here. If we drop into the day by day, I’ve marked out the 2 situations I’m taking a look at right here, which can be decided by BTC I’d picture. The bearish situation which does grant you $2700 and a interval of consolidation and re-accumulation is probably going if BTC/USD does break the parabola and lose $58k. The sharper restoration is extra possible right here, in my opinion, and we’ve got already taken out that lengthy wick into $3284 and trapped breakdown shorts, in addition to liquidated a whole lot of longs, so I’d be on the lookout for the formation of a higher-low this week above $3284, following by continuation by way of $3580 subsequent week into recent yearly highs in early April, particularly given how ETH shrugged off the SEC headlines yesterday. Provided that we shut the day by day under $3284 do I believe this v-recovery doesn’t happen.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that value bought off final week from the open into the shut proper above the 360wMA at 00.053 and this week discovered resistance at that weekly open, dumping into assist at 0.051 and bouncing, now consolidating between the 2 ranges. While this doesn’t look fairly, it additionally doesn’t look ugly – it simply appears to be like just like the worst chop of all time. We now have one thing of a sweep of the latest swing-low into demand and value wanting prefer it desires to carry 0.051 right here. If it might’t, and we shut the weekly under 0.051, then it appears to be like ugly, and we’ll seemingly want one other deep flush of 0.049 into 0.046 earlier than an actual backside types. If, nevertheless, assist holds right here, then we’re simply ready for that weekly lose by way of the trendline and for it to then maintain as assist the next week. Wanting on the day by day, we are able to see that value broke under native trendline resistance this week on that dump into 0.051 and is now retesting 0.0533 as resistance. This would be the key check over the subsequent day or two: reject right here and switch decrease and I believe it’s unlikely 0.051 is holding once more, and we’ll see the pair 5% decrease from there; if, nevertheless, we are able to break and shut again above that degree, I believe we take one other stab at that trendline.
Solana:
SOL/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
SOL/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $178.18 (0.002726 BTC)
Market Cap: $79.248bn
Ideas: Starting with SOL/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that value closed final week at recent yearly highs, simply shy of the September 2021 excessive at $213 and the 78.6% fib of the bear market. This week has seen a small pull-back off that space into the 61.8% fib at $170, with value wicking under it into $162 and discovering assist. I might see this pulling again so far as $140 earlier than marking out a backside, if the remainder of the market is transferring decrease, and the pair would nonetheless look unbelievable. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to see the parabolic advance from the December 2022 lows and the steepening of the rally this previous couple of weeks. Regardless of this, momentum indicators are exhibiting no indicators of exhaustion on the latest push greater into $212, and this presently simply appears to be like like a textbook reset earlier than continuation greater. If we do take out $162, I’d count on a whole lot of demand to step in above $144 and mark out a backside, from which the pair begins the leg into all-time highs. This might truly even consolidate for just a few weeks with out breaking that parabolic advance. So long as it holds, new all-time highs earlier than Could is most certainly.
Turning to SOL/BTC, we are able to see that value may be very tightly holding to its parabolic curve right here, pushing off assist at 0.00207 final week into recent yearly highs, closing across the 61.8% fib of the bear market at 0.003. This week has seen a minor retracement off that degree, however nothing to recommend a break of the parabola simply but. We do have some indicators of doable exhaustion up right here, however nothing concrete at current: this might simply bounce subsequent week above 0.0026 and proceed greater into 0.00377 after that with the parabola intact. If it does maintain, we’re taking a look at recent highs in summer time. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that value swept the 0.0029 excessive and located resistance, with that degree now capping value. If we do see continuation decrease off this degree, I’d be on the lookout for that prior resistance at 0.00244 to behave as assist, main to a different breakout try past 0.003. Actually, nothing majorly bearish in any respect on this timeframe. Simply search for a higher-low formation and bid till the parabola breaks.
Fantom:
FTM/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
FTM/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $1.07 (1632 satoshis)
Market Cap: $3.004bn
Ideas: Starting with FTM/USD, we are able to see on the weekly that the pair has been marching forwards this previous few weeks, rallying by way of the 200wMA and turning it into assist at $0.55 earlier than breaking multi-year resistance at $0.64. This latter degree additionally turned assist as value pushed greater, with this previous week seeing the pair rally by way of a cluster of resistance under $1 into $1.14, the place it did reject. So long as we are able to shut the weekly above $1, I’d count on continuation greater over the subsequent few weeks right here in direction of the 38.2% fib of the bear market and prior resistance between $1.51-1.66. Momentum indicators are additionally exhibiting no indicators of slowing down simply but. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see that there was some divergence on the previous few pushes into resistance, and in basic bull market vogue these have been invalidated as value closed by way of $0.98 and turned it into assist, marking out a higher-high on RSI. From right here, I’m anticipating to see some extra consolidation between $0.91-1.1.14 over the subsequent week or so earlier than one other leg greater into $1.50 in early April.
Turning to FTM/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is confirmed as bullish with a sequence of higher-highs and higher-lows for the reason that October 2023 backside formation. The previous couple of weeks have seen the pair battle at 1309 satoshis, wicking into the 200wMA at 1422 satoshis however rejecting and shutting under that degree twice. This previous week value has lastly broke by way of the resistance cluster, rallying into the subsequent main resistance at 1730 satoshis, with momentum additionally pointing greater. From right here, so long as we shut the week above 1400 satoshis, I’d count on value to consolidate a bit of after which run by way of 1900 satoshis into the 23.6% fib of the bear market and main assist turned resistance round 2420 satoshis, which is the place I’d count on an area high to start forming. Until we now shut again inside 1308, the development appears to be like very robust. Dropping briefly into the day by day, we are able to see how some consolidation right into a breakout may look, however the principle factor to remove right here is that the 360dMA is now assist and there are not any indicators of momentum exhaustion up right here. I’m a Fantom bull for the foreseeable future.
Illuvium:
ILV/USD
Weekly:
Each day:
ILV/BTC
Weekly:
Each day:
Worth: $130.03 (0.001989 BTC)
Market Cap: $822.166mn
Ideas: Starting with ILV/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has bottomed out and has shaped robust bullish construction, with the next excessive by way of $120 a few weeks in the past into $162. Worth then consolidated and has since flipped $121 into assist, which is holding at current. I’d now count on to see the subsequent leg greater start from right here by way of $162 into recent yearly highs,, with fairly actually no resistance between there and the 200% fib extension of the development round prior assist at $240-260. Invalidation can be a weekly shut again under that $108 degree that had capped value for over a 12 months. Dropping into the day by day, we are able to see how robust day by day construction is right here and, while we did have some divergence on the latest push greater, I consider this has performed out on the dump earlier this week. We must always now see a higher-low type above $120 and value to proceed by way of from there in direction of $260 within the subsequent few weeks.
Turning to ILV/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has spent the majority of its existence in a downtrend, however following the all-time low formation at 0.00124 in October 2023, the pair rallied greater, reclaiming assist at 0.0016 and turning weekly construction bullish. Worth marked out an area greater at 0.0033, and has since retraced into 0.0016, which has held as reclaimed assist for the most effective a part of 2024. We at the moment are range-bound between that assist and prior assist turned resistance at 0.00224, and I’d count on upside decision of this vary given the weekly construction. If we get a weekly shut by way of 0.00224, that may be a very clear sign to purchase spot with invalidation at 0.0015, seeking to maintain for a cycle, with a significant goal at 0.01.
LooksRare:
LOOKS/USD
Each day:
LOOKS/BTC
Each day:
Worth: $0.131 (200 satoshis)
Market Cap: $130.877mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LooksRare look just about the identical given the relative lack of value historical past, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at LOOKS/USD, we are able to see how value has lately rallied by way of the 200dMA and 360dMA that had been capping costs, with the latter by no means having been traded above prior besides a pretend out in December 2023. We pushed greater and reclaimed assist at $0.11 earlier than value discovered resistance at a yearly excessive round $0.187. We now have since retraced into $0.11, which is presently holding as assist, and the broader development is now pointing greater, with a sequence of higher-highs and higher-lows, in addition to the beginnings of a parabolic advance. I’d count on to see the subsequent leg greater for LOOKS start from right here, taking the pair by way of $0.19 in direction of main resistance at $0.46, the place the two.618 extension of the present development can also be sat. The craziest factor, nevertheless, is how far off the highs we’re – the 23.6% fib retracement of the bear market doesn’t even come into sight till $1.65, with the 38.2% fib at crucial prior assist turned resistance round $2.60. That latter degree is the place I’m seeking to maintain this to, given the truth that LOOKS has by no means traded a bull cycle. I’ll look to exit most of my place round that degree both late this 12 months or early subsequent and maintain a bit of for a possible moon-shot at all-time highs. For the short-term, so long as we maintain above $0.09 this appears to be like high quality for greater costs…
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook. Again to full size subsequent week!
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
