Market Outlook #259 (thirteenth March 2024)
Whats up and welcome to the 259th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s submit, I shall be protecting Bitcoin, Ethereum, Polygon, Uniswap, Cosmos, Arweave, Vulcan Cast, enqAI, Banana Gun, League of Kingdoms and BuildAI. All of those have been readers requests this week, which is nice to see! For the newer, purely on-chain performs, I’ve centered solely on the USD pair, as there may be little or no price-history obtainable.
As ever, when you’ve got any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $72,931
Market Cap: $1.435trn
Ideas: If we start by BTC/USD, on the weekly timeframe we are able to see that value closed final week proper on that prior all-time excessive at $69k, on rising quantity. Since, buying and selling this week has seen Bitcoin enter value discovery, pushing into $73.7k, under which it’s at present sat. Momentum indicators are very a lot bullish at current, with no indicators of exhaustion on this timeframe simply but. We now additionally haven’t any resistance ranges, given value discovery, and so the primary main stage overhead of any concern shall be $100k, being arguably essentially the most vital psychological quantity in its historical past alongside the 1.618 fib extension of the bear market. Little question we’ll see loads of volatility as we strategy that stage. We are able to additionally see from the weekly that value has been in a parabolic advance for the reason that November 2022 backside, and most not too long ago broke and closed above channel resistance at $53k, after which it has not appeared again, steepening the curve of the advance. If this parabola holds agency into the halving, we’re $100k by Might, as absurd as that might have sounded 6 months in the past. Such is the power of the bid. Now, if we occur to seek out resistance within the subsequent few weeks and break that parabola, I’d then anticipate a interval of prolonged consolidation earlier than the following leg increased begins, however let’s cross that bridge once we come to it. For now, so long as this week closes firmly by way of $69k, I believe the following month is broadly up solely (with shallow however sharp wicks to deleverage the market).
Turning to the day by day, we are able to see that there’s some momentum divergence forming right here as now we have emerged into value discovery, however nothing that has been confirmed but – this might very nicely simply preserve grinding increased till momentum makes contemporary highs and invalidates any exhaustion. That stated, if we reject under $75k (the 1.618 extension of the present pattern) after which break and shut again inside $69k, now we have confluence between value and momentum for a deeper pull-back, seemingly again in direction of $60k to retest that help stage earlier than one other breakout try. Assuming the pattern holds – which is my view right here – we must always see some minor rejection at $75k, a higher-low above $69k after which continuation in direction of $85k by the tip of the month, invalidating the present perceived weak point in RSI. Not a lot else so as to add right here at current.
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $3992.50 (0.0546 BTC)
Market Cap: $479.451bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair continues to tear increased on steadily rising quantity week-on-week, having examined $3350 as help final week and bounced all the way in which into the weekly shut simply shy of $3900. Worth is now consolidating early this week round that $3950 resistance stage, and any acceptance by way of right here opens up continuation into the final stage earlier than all-time highs, at $4385. Nothing to counsel exhaustion right here on the upper timeframes both. If we drop into the day by day, we are able to see a bit little bit of divergence on the newest push increased, however the pattern has been relentless and steep, providing solely sharp however temporary wicks to purchase into. We obtained one other a kind of a few days in the past, and except we now shut again under $3950 and switch it into resistance I’m anticipating this pattern to persist into $4385 earlier than the eventual breakout and value discovery in just a few weeks time. Final cycle, it took 48 days for ETH to make a contemporary all-time excessive after Bitcoin, however on condition that this cycle is progressing extra quickly than the final I’d not be stunned to see ETH at $5k in early April.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we are able to see that the pair continues to cut round between the 200wMA and 360dMA, however value is forming higher-lows for now. So long as the 360wMA at 0.053 holds, this construction will stay intact and I’d anticipate an upside breakout past 0.06 to observe shortly. If, nonetheless, we shut under 0.053, it’s seemingly we see the underside of this cluster swept into 0.049 once more to retest that low as help, with the potential for a wick under that if BTC/USD goes on a tear in direction of $100k earlier than a pointy reversal. Wanting on the day by day, we are able to see this construction clearly, with the pair now winding tighter with decrease highs and higher-lows, seemingly culminating in some volatility both facet of 0.053 and 0.058 within the subsequent week or two. I do suppose the legit breakout and continuation increased is shut – simply uncertain at current whether or not we see a front-run of BTC consolidating after a run-up earlier than marking the underside, or whether or not the pair wicks under all of this help after which reverses sharply just like the January price-action (fake-out) showcased…
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $1.28 (1752 satoshis)
Market Cap: $11.907bn
Ideas: Starting with MATIC/USD, we are able to see that the pair has bullish weekly construction following final week’s agency shut by way of $1.10, establishing the uptrend and opening up continuation into the 2023 highs at $1.56. Weekly momentum can be trying respectable right here for additional upside and this week has seen value discover help at that prior resistance round $1.10 and bounce. When you’re holding MATIC longs right here, I’d look to hedge round $1.40 and reopen publicity on a clear breakout by way of $1.60 for the remainder of the cycle, as there may be loads of resistance up right here, so we may see some volatility. However for those who’re in spot, actually simply sitting in your fingers and letting the market drag this by way of $1.56 is your finest wager, with $2 as the first goal after that stage is cleared. I don’t suppose MATIC shall be an outperformer this cycle relative to different large-caps given its efficiency final cycle, however I’d not be stunned in any respect to see some minor value discovery by way of $3 earlier than the cycle peaks. Turning to the day by day, we are able to see some divergence in momentum right here, very like BTC and ETH, however given the proximity to main resistance right here I’d be extra involved, as defined prior. If we do reject off this $1.31-1.43 vary, I’d not be stunned to see $1.10 retested to mark out a higher-low within the broader pattern earlier than continuation by way of $1.56.
Taking a look at MATIC/BTC, we are able to see how value swept the underside of the multi-year vary at 1717 satoshis into 1550 however closed again above the vary final week, now holding it as help. This might act as a classical spring formation, from which we might see value rally by way of 2100 satoshis over the following couple of weeks, turning weekly construction bullish. If as an alternative we see lacklustre price-action this week and help fails as BTC strikes increased, I’d not need to personal Matic whatever the Greenback pair, given there may be zero help under and we’d be seeing no indicators of power at a key historic stage. All to play for right here…
Uniswap:
UNI/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
UNI/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $14.08 (19,270 satoshis)
Market Cap: $10.62bn
Ideas: Starting with the weekly timeframe for UNI/USD, we are able to see that value rallied by way of $13 into $17.50 as resistance final week however rejected, nonetheless closing firmly above that vast historic stage that preceded capitulation in 2022. This could now act as help this week, and if that’s the case I’d anticipate one other crack at $17.50 to observe, which is barely a minor resistance stage – above that, nonetheless, now we have the 38.2% fib and prior resistance round $20, adopted by the 50% fib and main historic stage at $25. I’d anticipate to see some type of native prime between these ranges for the following pullback and consolidation earlier than continuation increased. Wanting on the day by day, we are able to see some minor divergence on momentum however construction is tremendous clear right here, with resistance changing into help as we push increased. So long as we don’t see the pair shut again under $13 this week, up solely continues. If we do shut under that stage, I’d look to purchase blood as near $10 because the market will give me, however I’d not anticipate a lot, to be sincere.
Turning to UNI/BTC, we are able to see that value has turned weekly construction bullish and is now simply consolidating round prior resistance at 17.5k satoshis. Weekly momentum is trending increased and we’re very a lot trying prepared for extra upside within the coming weeks. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, we are able to see that the 360dMA is now appearing as help, as is prior resistance at 18.9k satoshis. If this space between 17.5k and 19k satoshis can maintain, I’d anticipate 35k satoshis to be the following goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern. Solely under 17.5k would there be any motive to get bearish given the implications for market construction. Nothing else so as to add right here – that is very clear.
Cosmos:
ATOM/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ATOM/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $13.65 (18,710 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.318bn
Ideas: Starting with ATOM/USD, we are able to see comparable construction to MATIC, with a higher-low in October 2023 above the Might 2022 capitulation low resulting in a shift to bullish weekly construction and the formation of an uptrend. This pattern was solidified final week with an in depth by way of trendline resistance from the September 2022 highs. Weekly RSI can be making contemporary highs however value is now pushing up into the 200wMA at $14, simply shy of the multi-year resistance cluster between $14.60-16. This, very like MATIC, places you in a little bit of a pickle for those who’re levered closely and lengthy: there might be a violent response off this overhead resistance, so in all probability finest to hedge up right here and reopen lengthy publicity by way of $16 if that’s the way you’re enjoying this, however for those who’re holding spot then sit in your fingers till ultimately that stage breaks and ‘simple mode’ begins in direction of $20 as the following resistance. Long run, I anticipate this one to push again into all-time highs, however unsure about huge durations of value discovery by way of $47.
Turning to ATOM/BTC, we are able to see that the pair has been in a downtrend since September 2022, most not too long ago breaking under help at 20k satoshis to seek out help at that historic 17.8k stage, which marked the underside in 2019. We do have some indicators of pattern exhaustion right here as now we have approached this stage and subsequently the potential for reversal, however no precise construction but to substantiate this. If we break and shut under 17.8k, I’d anticipate the all-time lows at 14.2k satoshis to be swept earlier than any significant reversal begins. Wanting on the day by day for readability, I’ve marked out what we might even see if this 17.8k stage is to carry, which is a pointy sweep by way of the extent adopted by a reclaim and rally by way of 20.4k satoshis into 22.7k satoshis, then forming a higher-low again above that 20.4k satoshi space – if we see this, I’m on board for ATOM outperformance going ahead. Till then, not one I’m eager to carry with so many higher alternatives current.
Arweave:
AR/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
AR/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $37.97 (52,140 satoshis)
Market Cap: $2.491bn
Ideas: If we glance firstly at AR/USD, we are able to see that value has been on a tear the previous few weeks, with final week bouncing off resistance turned help at $23 and pushing up so far as the 50% fib retracement of the bear market at $48 earlier than closing the week out at $41. We now have no indicators of exhaustion on the weekly and loads of quantity on this most up-to-date push increased, however I’d not be stunned to see some consolidation right here above $34 and under $44 the remainder of this week. As quickly as we shut above $44 on the weekly, I believe we’re gonna see acceleration in direction of $72 as the following main resistance stage earlier than contemporary all-time highs later this yr. Dropping into the day by day, very like others cash we are able to see some exhaustion on the final push increased however nothing structurally to point a lot decrease costs are inbound . Reasonably, I anticipate a higher-low to kind above prior resistance at $34. If that stage does fail, I believe we commerce again in direction of $27.50, the place there may be loads of demand. To the upside, simply getting a clear break by way of final week’s highs will open up vital upside, as aside from the 61.8% fib at $59, there actually isn’t a lot overhead resistance earlier than $72.
Turning to AR/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and value has not too long ago examined the 38.2% fib of the bar market at 68k satoshis, earlier than rejecting and now consolidating between reclaimed help at 50k and resistance round 65k satoshis. Once more, so long as that 50k stage now holds as help, I believe we simply proceed to push increased within the subsequent week or two in direction of trendline resistance from the all-time highs and the 50% fib at 85.6k satoshis. Wanting on the day by day, the image is basically the identical because it was for the Greenback pair, with some momentum divergence right here however construction nonetheless trying stable for a higher-low above that 44-50k satoshi vary. Except we see 37.8k fail, day by day construction continues to be bullish and the pattern is unbroken, so no motive to overcomplicate this to be sincere…
Vulcan Cast:
PYR/USD
Every day:
PYR/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $9,47 (13,001 satoshis)
Market Cap: $226.443mn
Ideas: I’ll focus solely right here on the Greenback pair for Vulcan Cast.
Taking a look at PYR/USD, we are able to see that the pair emerged from a multi-year vary in November 2023, turning vary resistance into help at $5.50. Worth then rallied into $9.10, discovered resistance and retraced, retesting that vary resistance and forming a low above the 200dMA. Since, value has continued the pattern increased, rallying by way of $9.10 final week into the 23.6% fib of the bear market round prior help at $10.78, the place now we have discovered some resistance. I’d anticipate to see some consolidation right here however for a higher-low to kind above $8, resulting in a breakout by way of $10.78, with $16 as the following goal past that. I’m nonetheless holding my spot bag from that vary and I’m on the lookout for the 38.2% fib to be tagged at $18.60 earlier than I start contemplating promoting partials and scaling out, with a view to carry some for value discovery past $51 in a full-blown gaming mania sooner or later on this cycle. If you’re on the sidelines seeking to get in, I’d be contemplating something near $8 as a superb entry with invalidation at $5.50 and that $18 space as a primary goal.
enqAI:
ENQAI/USD
Every day:
Worth: $0.099 (136 satoshis)
Market Cap: $95.036mn
Ideas: As enqAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, we’ll look solely on the Greenback pair right here.
Taking a look at ENQAI/USD, we are able to see that value initially fashioned resistance at $0.041 earlier than retracing into an all-time low at $0.0068 shortly after buying and selling started. This marked out the underside, from which the pair then consolidated for a month between a higher-low at $0.0097 and resistance at $0.023. This vary gave manner in February, starting ENQAI’s first bull cycle, with value then making contemporary highs by way of $0.041 and now grinding increased inside a channel, forming an all-time excessive per week in the past round $0.15. We now have since retraced to the underside of the channel and prior resistance at $0.084, appearing as help. That is the extent bulls need to see maintain, as a breakdown under this stage and thru the underside of the channel would open up the probability of a deeper retracement again in direction of that $0.041 stage to retest it as help earlier than continuation increased can start. If this space does maintain, nonetheless, we’re $0.22 as the following main goal because the 1.618 extension of the pattern, someday late in March. If that is vertical accumulation earlier than a parabola/blow-off prime begins, we must always see the highest of the channel give manner and switch into help, resulting in sharper rallies increased from there. On the finish of the day, we’re nonetheless pretty early within the AI crypto cycle and it’s seemingly these valuations change into way more ridiculous earlier than the cycle peaks, so holding this while its in value discovery and simply sitting in your fingers is smart to me.
Banana Gun:
BANANA/USD
Every day:
Worth: $35.99 (49,410 satoshis)
Market Cap: $86.186mnn
Ideas: Once more, as Banana Gun has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, let’s concentrate on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at BANANA/USD, we are able to see that early price-action in September noticed value rally off help at $5.38 into resistance at $14, earlier than retracing to kind a contemporary all-time low at $5 after which reclaiming $5.38 as help. Subsequently, the pair started its first bull cycle and rallied by way of $14 into $18.77 in December, earlier than retracing right into a higher-low at $8.18 in January. We now have since been on a constant pattern increased, with a parabolic advance at present in play. Worth rallied into all-time highs a few days in the past at $39 and has been grinding increased inside a channel (just like ENQAI) since mid-February. I’d anticipate to see this pattern persist right here and the rallies get steeper, so long as we don’t break and shut under $30. If that stage holds, I believe we see continuation into $48 later this month, adopted by some type of blow-off prime / parabola break someday in April, earlier than a interval of consolidation and correction earlier than what’s going to seemingly be the ‘actual’ blow-off prime at any time when BTC/USD has marked a prime for this cycle. The choice state of affairs is that it simply continues to cling to this parabola and grind increased by way of April above $80 and past, however I’m leaning much less in direction of this view at current.
League of Kingdoms:
LOKA/USD
Every day:
LOKA/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $0.424 (583 satoshis)
Market Cap: $48.627mn
Ideas: As each pairs for LOKA look very comparable, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
Taking a look at LOKA/USD, we are able to see that the challenge launched throughout the bear market and suffered a 97% drawdown from the $5.50 all-time excessive in April 2022, falling all the way in which into $0.17 in September 2023, which marked out the underside. Worth then reclaimed help at $0.19 and commenced turning day by day construction bullish, rallying for months till it hit the 360dMA at $0.34 and rejected twice, retracing off that stage into the 200dMA to kind a higher-low above $0.19 in February. From there, the pair has continued to rally, breaking by way of the 360dMA and turning it into help for the primary time in its historical past. We now have pushed from that stage into prior help at $0.45, under which we are actually consolidating. I’d anticipate to see the formation of a higher-low above $0.34 now, seemingly nearer to $0.38, and value to interrupt by way of $0.45 within the subsequent week or two, main an enormous vary of upside to be captured earlier than the following main resistance. I shall be seeking to purchase acceptance above $0.45 with a view to carry into the $1.46 stage – the 23.6% fib of the bear market and prior help turned resistance.
BuildAI:
BUILD/USD
4H:
Worth: $0.51 (686 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.298mn
Ideas: As BuildAI has solely been buying and selling for just a few weeks, I’ve opted for the 4H chart right here of the Greenback pair for evaluation, given how little price-history is accessible.
Taking a look at BUILD/USD, we are able to see comparable price-action to early ENQAI, with a rally into resistance at $0.45, adopted by the primary correction and consolidation above help at $0.15 (a 66% drawdown) after which the start of a bull cycle earlier this month off that help stage. Worth rallied by way of resistance at $0.31, turning it into help, then cleared $0.45 making contemporary all-time highs. Since, now we have continued to push increased into $0.85 because the all-time excessive, however there are some indicators of exhaustion right here at current. You will need to be conscious of the truth that it is a 4H chart, nonetheless, so exhaustion is anticipated after a few weeks of rallying increased. We now have reclaimed resistance at $0.71 forming that lower-high, however at present value is holding above prior highs turned help at $0.45. This might very nicely mark the underside right here as this cluster of help has been swept right into a key stage and value has discovered demand, and if that’s the case we must always see a higher-low kind above $0.50 this week resulting in continuation by way of $0.85 into value discovery, with $1.25 as a goal past that. If, nonetheless, we’d like a bigger correction right here, $0.62 ought to now act as reclaimed resistance, forming one other decrease excessive, and value ought to break under $0.45 from there, opening up a transfer into the earlier mid-range at $0.31 (which can be the 78.6% fib retracement of this whole rally *and* across the identical drawdown because the earlier correction). If we get near $0.31, that might be a superb entry for anybody seeking to maintain this for a cycle.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or e mail me instantly at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
