Market Outlook #258 (third March 2024)
Hey and welcome to the 258th instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I shall be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Filecoin, ImmutableX, Beam, Ethereum Identify Service and Myro. I shall be publishing an extended Outlook subsequent week with just a few extra smallcaps in attention-grabbing sectors, however in case you have any requests please do let me know.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $62,624
Market Cap: $1.231trn
Ideas: Starting with the Month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we will see that February was one of many strongest months in historical past for Bitcoin, rallying off the month-to-month open all the way in which into the month-to-month shut at ~$61,200. This did happen on barely much less quantity than January, however the sheer energy of the price-action right here is obvious, with the pair closing via the 78.6% fib of the bear market at $57.6k and above $59k resistance, having marginally rejected on the final stage of resistance under all-time highs at $64,900. Worth is at the moment holding to a steep parabolic advance, as proven by the curve of the rally up to now, and may this advance maintain into March we must always see continuation via all-time highs, with $100k as the apparent main stage overhead to seek out vital resistance, with it being each a psychological stage and the 1.618 extension of the bear market. There may be additionally loads of room for upside relative to prior cycles on momentum indicators, which look primed for continuation.
If we have a look at the weekly chart, we will see how this previous week rallied off that weekly open round $52.1k, having consolidated in a really tight vary the week prior, pushing via $59.2k into $64.1k and now set to shut round $62.6k. All of this occurred on large quantity on the week, persevering with the sample of progress following the consolidation week. Weekly RSI is pushing into new highs, indicating rampant momentum right here, and we now have solely $64,900 standing in the way in which of latest highs past $69.2k. The parabola has additionally been depicted right here, nonetheless, and we do have additional room to consolidate following this enlargement if required while nonetheless holding the parabolic advance. Now, what’s form of wild is that this tempo of advance is indicative of costs near $100k as early as this summer season. What we may even see happen – and what can be extra typical of a 4-year cycle – can be a break of the parabola shortly following new all-time highs, consolidation for a interval after which a brand new parabolic advance into the market cycle peak. If, nonetheless, we merely maintain to this curve and rally into and past the summer season, it’s probably we see a cyclical prime inside 2024. Looking forward to subsequent week, I believe it’s extremely probably if ETF inflows persist we see this resistance damaged and value push into that all-time excessive, the place I might anticipate to see a whole lot of volatility, significantly given the quantity of leverage within the markets at current.
Turning lastly to the day by day, we will see that value has been consolidating in tightening day by day ranges for the previous 4 days following the break and shut via $59.2k. On condition that momentum is exhibiting no indicators of exhaustion on any timeframe we now have checked out, one is inclined to anticipate upside decision to this consolidation. Nevertheless, as we do have *rather a lot* of leverage right here, I might not be stunned to see price-action much like final week the place we take out native lows into help at $59.2k earlier than reversing sharply greater via $65k. Wild week forward…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $3464.82 (0.05531 BTC)
Market Cap: $416.329bn
Ideas: Starting with ETH/USD, we will see from the weekly that the pair has continued to rally greater, constructing on the previous three weeks of comparable price-action, rallying off that weekly open into the weekly shut right here at $3460, shy of prior help at $3580 – the extent we now have marked out as a goal for a swing place for a while now. this, there are not any clear causes to anticipate the rally to stop right here, with momentum in full help of bulls and no indicators of rejection but. That mentioned, I’ve now exited levered longs, holding solely spot ETH as we go into subsequent week – no must be a hero up right here, in my opinion. If we do reject $3580. I might anticipate a higher-low to kind over the following couple of weeks above $2800 and value to proceed from there into $3950. Nevertheless, if we don’t reject subsequent week, I believe it’s probably this simply continues to tear into that $3950 stage shortly thereafter, with solely $4385 then holding it down earlier than recent all-time highs. It’s probably that this final transfer upwards into all-time highs will happen when BTC/USD has damaged all-time highs and consolidated, permitting ETH/BTC to proceed to maneuver greater.
Turning to ETH/BTC, we will see that regardless of the profitable breakout past long-term trendline resistance, this previous week of price-action in BTC/USD has weighed closely, inflicting the pair to retrace the rally all the way in which again under the trendline, under the 200wMA, and again into help at 0.0551. This actually is chop metropolis right here, however we do have some indicators of energy in momentum and construction right here, so long as this now holds above 0.051; if BTC/USD makes a brand new all-time excessive subsequent week and ETH/BTC doesn’t make a lower-low under 0.051, that may be a *large* signal of energy, in my opinion. Trying briefly on the day by day, we will see how the 360dMA capped the final rally, however day by day construction is trying respectable right here as we kind a higher-low above that 0.0533 stage. Actually, till we see BTC break all-time highs, it’s exhausting to have a learn on this on the day by day timeframe in any respect – I simply wish to see 0.051 maintain on that all-time excessive break to make sure on betting on ETH energy from there.
Filecoin:
FIL/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
FIL/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $10.65 (16,871 satoshis)
Market Cap: $5.505bn
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at FIL/USD, we will see from the weekly that value turned weekly construction bullish on the transfer via $6.74 into $8.13, retraced to seek out help above $4.63 and has since rallied on rising quantity into $11.25 this previous week, confirming the uptrend. Momentum additionally appears to be like robust right here, and if the pair can maintain above $8.13 subsequent week I might anticipate to see value commerce via $11.25 in the direction of the following main resistance at $17. Actually although, we’re barely leaving disbelief for this market cycle as value breaks via $11.25, with the 23.6% fib of the bear market all the way in which up close to $57. If you’re a spot holder from the lows, I might simply sit comfortably and await on the very least a 200wMA retest at $26, with main resistance above that at $30, earlier than seeking to exit something in any respect. If we drop into the day by day, we will additionally see how the confluence of the 200dMA and 360dMA acted as help, with the previous now crossing above the latter (an indication of an rising bull marketplace for alts). From there, value rallied into recent yearly highs, with day by day construction firmly bullish. There are not any indicators of exhaustion right here both, so any pull-backs in the direction of $8.80 can be shopping for alternatives, for my part, with invalidation under $6.74.
Turning to FIL/BTC, on the weekly we will see that the pair remains to be very a lot at cycle lows, having solely simply bounced off of all-time lows at 10.6k satoshis, via 14.2k as reclaimed help into 18.5k satoshis this previous week, which is prior help turned resistance. Now we have had diminishing volatility into this help cluster for months, and a detailed via 18.5k would flip weekly construction bullish right here. If we see that, I believe it’s secure to say the pair is rising from a bear market right into a bull market and we will anticipate sustained outperformance from there. In that state of affairs I believe we imply revert in the direction of that 200wMA at 80k satoshis, slightly below the 23.6% fib, within the coming months. If we briefly drop into the day by day, we will additionally see how the 200dMA is now appearing as resistance and the 360dMA, which capped rallies lately, has been breached and is now appearing as help additionally, offering confluence for this bottoming formation. Not a lot else so as to add right here for now however this appears to be like strong for energy within the subsequent few weeks.
ImmutableX:
IMX/USD
Every day:
IMX/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $3.26 (5211 satoshis)
Market Cap: $4.541bn
Ideas: As IMX has solely been buying and selling for a few years, each pairs look nearly similar right here, so let’s concentrate on the greenback pair.
IMX/USD, we will see that following a higher-low formation above help at $1.76, value continued the uptrend, rallying via the $2.61 excessive in February into $3.70, the place it discovered resistance proper across the 50% fib of the bear market and simply shy of the 100% fib extension of the present uptrend. Now we have since seen value consolidate while momentum indicators reset, with prior resistance at $2.87 now appearing as help. From right here, I’m anticipating one other leg greater to unfold, resulting in a retest of main resistance at $4.50 – across the 61.8% fib of the bear market, together with the final stage of horizontal resistance. That’s the place I’m seeking to unload half of my spot bag of IMX from the lows – with a view to holding the remaining for value discovery via $7, as any shut via $4.50 has no resistance into that all-time excessive stage… it’s been a superb journey to this point.
Beam:
BEAM/USD
Every day:
BEAM/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $0.0341 (54 satoshis)
Market Cap: $1.794bn
Ideas: Once more, I’ll focus right here on the Greenback pair for Beam, because it has solely been buying and selling for just a few months.
BEAM/USD, we will see that value emerged from the prior consolidation vary, flipped that prior all-time excessive at help at $0.0275 and has been slowly grinding up and consolidating since, pushing into a brand new excessive at $0.038 however discovering a lot resistance at $0.0366. For the most effective a part of the previous month, prior resistance at $0.0307 has acted as help on this vary and we now have had bearish divergence. There are at the moment no indicators that the bearish divergence will play out, however the first signal can be a detailed via $0.0307, turning that stage into reclaimed resistance, from which level I might anticipate to see $0.0275 swept earlier than a brand new low varieties and value resumes the uptrend. If, nonetheless, value merely pushes via $0.037 within the coming days and finds help above that all-time excessive, making higher-highs on RSI, we invalidate this divergence, and that’s often a really robust sign for an additional leg greater. In that state of affairs, I’m taking a look at $0.051 as a significant goal, as it’s the confluence of the 200% extension of the prior consolidation and the 300% extension of the uptrend. Longer-term, I’m searching for costs nicely past $0.051, however we are going to then be stepping into the latter levels of the market cycle: my expectations are a $10bn+ FDV for Beam when all is claimed and accomplished, so we’ve nonetheless bought a superb 5-6x in it at the least if my expectations play out.
Ethereum Identify Service:
ENS/USD
Weekly:
Every day:
ENS/BTC
Weekly:
Every day:
Worth: $22.27 (35,471 satoshis)
Market Cap: $685.627mn
Ideas: Starting with ENS/USD, on the weekly we will see that value has been consolidating for many of this 12 months following that prime quantity rally via a number of key resistance ranges. We hit $27.43 off that rally and have since been capped by $24.30 as resistance, discovering help above $14.55. The previous few weeks have been spent proper up close to that vary resistance, with this week seeing a profitable retest of prior resistance turned help at $18.50. If we drop into the day by day for extra readability, we will see how momentum has fully reset however is holding above that fifty mark as higher-lows kind on the value chart, which is promising for bulls. Now we have native trendline resistance capping the highs, however I’m seeking to open a levered lengthy on a detailed above $24.30, turning that stage and the trendline into help, as I anticipate we are going to start the following leg greater into the $38-41 vary from there. I’m additionally nonetheless holding my full spot place from $8.50ish, which I’m not seeking to promote any time quickly, with a view to carry for the 50% fib of the bear market round $85-90. In case you’re on the sidelines, this subsequent break and shut via resistance is strictly what you wish to pounce on when it comes…
Turning to ENS/BTC, we will see that the pair retraced a lot of the single-week rally over the previous couple of months, closing via help turned resistance at 43,300 satoshis this week, as value bought off into reclaimed help above 32k. I’m anticipating a higher-low to kind above the 30k area in March, from which we see continuation of the bull cycle for ENS via 65k satoshis into the October 2022 Excessive round 108k satoshis – the 38.2% fib of the bear market. Above that stage, we enter the endgame and method the latter levels of the market cycle, however, if we drop into the day by day, we will see that value is discovering help above each the 200dMA and 360dMA, which had acted as resistance prior – and in case you have but to purchase spot ENS and wish to hitch your wagon to the Vitalik-endorsed Categorical, someplace within the the 30-32k satoshi area would make good sense, particularly if BTC blasts via all-time highs within the near-term and supplies one other dump on the ENS/BTC pair into help. So long as 26k satoshis doesn’t give method, I believe this nonetheless appears to be like strong.
Myro:
MYRO/USD
Every day:
MYRO/BTC
Every day:
Worth: $0.158 (255 satoshis)
Market Cap: $157.943mn
Ideas: As Myro has solely been buying and selling for just a few months, let’s focus right here on the Greenback pair.
MYRO/USD, we will see that value consolidated after that all-time excessive at $0.26, retracing quickly into $0.041 as help originally of February. From there, value shaped a multi-week vary capped by prior help at $0.11, forming a higher-low above $0.052 in mid-February earlier than rallying via that $0.11 stage a few days in the past, as memecoin mania started to kick into gear. That stage is now appearing as help, and value is sat simply shy of prior resistance at $0.176. I’m anticipating to see continuation via this stage into the prior all-time excessive within the subsequent couple of weeks, main to cost discovery and continuation of the broader uptrend. The subsequent goal via $0.26 can be $0.44 because the 1.618 extension of the pattern, adopted by $0.53. Little else so as to add right here.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions under, or electronic mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
