How Elon Musk’s endorsement of Trump could have backfired

Elon Musk’s endorsement of former President Donald Trump was meant to buoy the candidate’s probabilities in November. However greater than a month after Musk formally put his weight behind Trump, a sequence of Democratic assaults have instructed that the endorsement has uncovered a vulnerability. 

For the reason that tech billionaire endorsed Trump on July 13, the marketing campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris has repeatedly attacked Musk for his anti-worker stances. The marketing campaign has referred to as Musk and Trump “self-obsessed wealthy guys” and reposted audio from an occasion on Musk’s social media app, X, during which the 2 snort collectively about firing placing employees. 

Harris allies together with Shawn Fain, the president of the United Auto Staff, have adopted up with assaults of their very own, and now some Democratic strategists look keen to maintain highlighting the Musk-Trump alliance, which they see as reinforcing Trump’s weak factors. 

“Each time that Elon Musk tries to do one thing to assist Donald Trump, I feel it fires up the Democratic base to work in opposition to him,” stated Pete Giangreco, a Democratic strategist based mostly in Chicago. 

“For those who’ve acquired a billionaire serving to out somebody who says he is a billionaire, however actually is not, what does that basically get you?” he stated. 

Musk didn’t reply to a request for touch upon the Democrats’ assaults or the influence of his endorsement.

Musk’s endorsement was presupposed to hit the Trump marketing campaign like a lighting bolt. He introduced it the identical day the previous president survived an assassination try. His backing signaled that Trump would have all of the money and social media firepower he wanted to regain the White Home, and it added to a notion that Trump had gained over an enormous share of America’s tech business and entrepreneur class. 

Musk’s endorsement was arguably probably the most excessive profile and coveted of this election cycle, given his unprecedented combine of wealth, superstar and media attain. 

However the weeks since have been outlined by stumbles and missed alternatives. The 2 males publicly disagreed about how a lot cash Musk would chip in. Musk’s tremendous PAC went by a main workers shake-up quickly after it launched. And plenty of different Massive Tech donors have declined to observe Musk’s lead, selecting as an alternative to signal onto the Harris marketing campaign. 

Then there was the reside one-on-one dialogue on X, which Trump’s marketing campaign billed as “the interview of the century.” Partway by the two-hour occasion, Trump introduced up how a lot he admires Musk’s dealing with of labor unions. 

“I take a look at what you do. You stroll in and also you simply say, ‘You wanna give up?'” Trump stated whereas laughing. 

“Yeah,” Musk broke in, additionally laughing. 

“They go on strike,” Trump continued. “I will not point out the title of the corporate, however they go on strike, and also you say, ‘That is OK, you are all gone. You are all gone, so each considered one of you is gone.’ And you’re the best.” 

The Harris marketing campaign rapidly jumped on the alternate with a submit on X that has been seen 7.2 million instances. And it has posted concerning the alternate no less than thrice since. 

Harris’ marketing campaign added in a press release quickly after the occasion: “Trump’s total marketing campaign is in service of individuals like Elon Musk and himself — self-obsessed wealthy guys who will promote out the center class and who can not run a livestream within the 12 months 2024.” (The occasion was delayed 40 minutes by technical difficulties.) 

The episode snowballed. The United Auto Staff union filed unfair labor observe fees in opposition to Musk and Trump, alleging they interfered with employees who could wish to train their labor rights. The UAW’s Fain pressed the problem in media interviews. Performing Labor Secretary Julie Su stated at an occasion on the Democratic Nationwide Conference: “You possibly can’t be pro-Elon Musk and pro-worker.” 

Sean O’Brien, normal president of the Worldwide Brotherhood of Teamsters, who spoke on the Republican Nationwide Conference in July, slammed Trump and Musk’s feedback as “financial terrorism.” 

American employees’ proper to strike is assured by the Nationwide Labor Relations Act of 1935. 

The criticism of labor unions is prone to encourage a part of the Democratic base, stated Chuck Coughlin, a Republican-leaning marketing campaign marketing consultant. 

“If I had been the Harris marketing campaign, I would lean on that, too,” he stated. 

Harris leads Trump by 10 factors amongst individuals who reside in union households, based on a Fox Information ballot performed Aug. 9-12. 

Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, stated Democrats look like pulling from the playbook they utilized in 2012 to defeat Mitt Romney, who additionally appeared to maintain an off-the-cuff perspective towards job cuts. 

“They wish to make Trump, Elon and other people like them appear like plutocrats,” he stated. 

Steinhauser stated there is a hazard for Republicans that the message may resonate in robust union states like Michigan. 

“It will possibly land if delivered successfully. I do not suppose it is going to land, however it may,” he stated, including that it is robust for anybody message to interrupt by in a crowded media atmosphere. 

Musk has an extended document of opposing organized labor and has fought allegations of unlawful anti-worker exercise at his corporations Tesla, SpaceX and X. In 2018, he tweeted that unionized Tesla employees would lose inventory choices, which Tesla’s attorneys stated was protected “employer speech.” 

In January, Musk responded to allegations from the Nationwide Labor Relations Board in opposition to SpaceX with a countersuit asking a federal court docket to declare the NLRB’s system of administrative regulation judges unconstitutional. 

Labor union leaders have been harshly important of Trump’s time in workplace, citing his appointment of conservatives to the NLRB and the federal courts. On the similar time, Trump has sought to keep up some ties to organized labor, inviting some union leaders to the White Home whereas he was president and persevering with to court docket the Teamsters. 

Seth Harris, a former labor coverage adviser to President Joe Biden and a senior fellow on the Burnes Middle for Social Change at Northeastern College, stated he believes Trump desires to be ambiguous as regards to labor unions, a aim that he stated is now rather more tough. 

“Elon Musk created the chance that Donald Trump took to unmask himself as rabidly anti-union, and he did that by praising Elon Musk’s anti-union, union-busting perspective and endorsing the concept of illegally firing placing employees,” he stated.

Harris, who shouldn’t be associated to Kamala Harris, stated he views Musk’s endorsement as a web unfavorable. 

“Nobody views Elon Musk as a voice of the center class,” he stated. “Musk is a rapacious company overlord who did every thing in his energy to destroy organizing efforts at Tesla and in addition at SpaceX.” 

David Nasaw, the creator of books on enterprise magnates corresponding to William Randolph Hearst and Andrew Carnegie, questioned Musk’s capability to sway voters: “Even those that suppose he is a genius with regard to AI and tech and area journey, that does not translate into presidential campaigns.” 

“I am attempting to think about the demographics which are going to be swayed by Musk repeating Trump’s assaults,” he added. “If they do not consider Trump, are they going to all of the sudden come to his aspect as a result of Musk says he is proper?” 

Nasaw stated he sees a parallel with Hearst, a newspaper and radio baron who tried and did not defeat President Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 and 1940 by utilizing his media empire to fire up opposition. Musk confirmed related aspirations in 2022 when he purchased X, and he regularly makes use of the app to assault Harris and Biden. 

“When it got here to elections, no person actually trusted Hearst and there was no motive to belief Hearst. I feel the identical is true with Musk,” he stated. 

“As soon as upon a time there was this legion of Musk bros who held on his each phrase — who believed he was not solely a genius however a genius who was devoted to saving the planet,” he stated. “I do not suppose that is the case anymore.”

Nasaw stated he believes Musk has turn into “too far on the market” to draw widespread help, citing Musk’s antisemitic statements and his views about beginning charges. 

In a March ballot by Grinnell School, 47% of respondents stated they’d a good view of him, with 37% having an unfavorable view. For comparability, Taylor Swift in the identical ballot was seen favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 32%. Her potential endorsement within the presidential race is additionally extremely anticipated. 

A USA Right now/Suffolk College ballot in Could ranked Musk because the sixth most influential kingmaker amongst celebrities, simply behind Oprah Winfrey, with 15.2% of respondents saying Musk’s endorsement for president would have “rather a lot” or “just a little” affect on their vote. However the ballot discovered that his affect was largely restricted to Republicans, indicating he could not convey many Democratic-leaning voters into the Trump camp. 

Coughlin stated Musk and Trump have related fan bases. 

“I see it as drawing from the identical properly,” he stated. 

Each Trump and Musk have mentioned the likelihood of Musk serving in a second Trump administration, no less than in an advisory position. 

Lately, Musk has vacillated not solely on Trump however on whether or not he would endorse a candidate in any respect this election cycle. Musk stated in 2022 that Trump mustn’t search the White Home once more and he regularly describes himself as a former Democrat. 

As lately as March, Musk struck a pose of neutrality within the presidential race. 

“Simply to be tremendous clear, I’m not donating cash to both candidate for US President,” he posted on X, three days after assembly Trump over breakfast in Palm Seaside. 

Two months after that submit, Musk arrange a brilliant PAC, a kind of political motion committee that may elevate limitless money for impartial political exercise, not coordinated with a candidate. The committee, America PAC, is now operating advertisements supporting Trump and opposing Harris. 

Seth Masket, a College of Denver political science professor who has studied the facility of endorsements, stated the backing of a well-known particular person or media purveyor can generally make a distinction in a major election, as when Winfrey boosted then-Sen. Barack Obama’s presidential marketing campaign along with her endorsement in 2007. 

However the proof is skinny for endorsements typically elections, particularly in a comparatively polarized period, he stated. 

“Even a really well-known particular person’s endorsement shouldn’t be going to alter very many individuals’s minds,” he stated. 

Musk’s possession of X provides to his potential affect: He has probably the most followers on X with greater than 195 million and controls its algorithm, at instances pushing his personal posts greater within the feed. However X stays a a lot smaller app than opponents corresponding to Instagram, TikTok or YouTube, and its development has slowed. 

“I do not know what number of people who find themselves undecided on this race are counting on Twitter,” Masket stated, utilizing X’s earlier title. 

If Musk’s endorsement has sway with voters, it is prone to be amongst a really particular group, stated Thad Kousser, a political science professor on the College of California San Diego who has studied endorsements. 

“There are various individuals on this techno-libertarian, young-voter world who aren’t as set of their methods and locked into one celebration or one other.” Kousser stated. “They could be up for grabs on this election.” 

However as Trump’s ballot numbers have sagged, Musk has proven indicators of firming down his enthusiasm, if not outright indicators of purchaser’s regret. Musk didn’t converse on the Republican Nationwide Conference, regardless of early discussions amongst Trump and his allies for him to take action. 

And on July 22, two days after Trump boasted to a Michigan crowd that Musk “offers me $45 million a month,” Musk stated the determine was not true. He added on X that he would give “at a a lot decrease degree.” To date, Musk’s title hasn’t appeared as a donor on public marketing campaign finance disclosures aside from a $10,000 donation to the Utah Republican Social gathering, although there’s a lag in reporting. 

“If he comes by on these guarantees to donate tons of money, and that money is properly spent by the Trump marketing campaign, then that would have an impact,” stated Nasaw, the biographer. 

“However I see no indicators that, one, he will observe by and provides the cash he is promised or, two, that the Trump marketing campaign is organized in such a method as to utilize that cash,” he stated.