Market Outlook #262 (third April 2024)
Howdy and welcome to the 262nd instalment of my Market Outlook.
On this week’s publish, I will probably be overlaying Bitcoin, Ethereum, Cardano, Polygon, Optimism, Casper and Realio.
As ever, when you have any requests for subsequent week, please do let me know by way of e-mail or within the feedback.
Bitcoin:
Month-to-month:
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by wanting on the month-to-month chart for BTC/USD, we are able to see that final month was the best ever shut for Bitcoin on essentially the most quantity in over a 12 months, closing firmly by $69k into $71.3k. That is – as I’m certain you might be conscious – not bearish. this timeframe, so long as we maintain above $58kish in April, this nonetheless seems tremendous bullish for the approaching quarter. If April closes beneath $58k, we’ve a bit extra of a problem, because it seems extra like a false breakout than an actual one, however with this quantity profile and construction I’m leaning closely in the direction of the notion that each one April dips are for getting. Trying forward, so long as we do maintain above $58k, I believe we see $100k traded by Q3, and we are able to see why within the weekly chart…
Trying on the weekly, the very first thing to level out is that regardless of 4 weeks of consolidation round these all-time highs the parabolic advance stays intact, and we might proceed to consolidate for a few weeks but with out breaking it. Weekly momentum indicators proceed to level to increased costs with no exhaustion seen but, and on the worst – so long as the parabola holds – I believe we see a pointy wick beneath $61k into $59k after which bounce increased quickly from there. The extra bullish state of affairs right here is the formation of a higher-low this week above $61k that results in one other stab at all-time highs subsequent week, resulting in an eventual breakout earlier than Might and subsequent worth discovery, with the rallies getting sharper from there in the direction of $100k by July.
Sooner or later that parabola will break: it’ll both be quickly, and we are going to see an extended consolidation by summer season earlier than reversal doubtless late in Q3 going into the election cycle; or in just a few months time, after which I don’t understand how the cycle would play out from a parabolic break of say $140k. If we take a look at the every day, we are able to see that some type of ascending triangle is presently forming into these all-time highs and above the curve of the parabola. If we shut the every day beneath that, that is likely to be an early indicator of misplaced momentum and due to this fact the start of a bigger transfer down, doubtless in the direction of that $49-53k vary in a number of weeks time. If, nonetheless, we proceed to type higher-lows right here into mid-April I believe we push by $74k and start the following leg. The liquidation cascade state of affairs can be a pointy wick by $61k that results in a push into $59k – doubtless within the subsequent week or so – earlier than a tough v-reversal leaving late shorts trapped and liquidated longs chasing worth increased. Let’s see how this week closes out…
Ethereum:
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at ETH/USD on the weekly timeframe, we are able to see that the pair is consolidating beneath $3580 resistance, closing marginally above it final week however on low quantity in a good vary – and early this week promoting off from that open again in the direction of the prior low at $3057. For now, the pair is holding above that low, however I believe its trajectory relies upon BTC/USD over the following week or two. If we drop into the every day for readability, we are able to see how a lower-high has fashioned beneath $3726, however worth is presently discovering help and $3222 – the early March low. If this help holds for the remainder of the week, I can see continuation increased by $3726 to invalidate the decrease excessive subsequent week. Now, if we shut beneath $3222, I might anticipate $3057 to be taken out. What occurs afterwards is reaction-dependent: if we sweep $3057 and shut again above it, then pushing sharply again above $3222, I believe we mark a backside and proceed increased from there; if as an alternative we shut beneath $3057 and that degree acts as resistance, the pair is prone to return to $2735 earlier than a backside is discovered. I’m presently leaning in the direction of one of many first two situations, as except $59k falls for BTC/USD, I can’t see us getting $2735 for ETH.
Turning to ETH/BTC, this pair seems significantly woeful and anaemic after the previous week or two of grinding decrease, and we are actually pushing beneath the final line of defence at 0.051. If we shut beneath this degree, I believe it’s doubtless we take out the yearly low at 0.0478 into 0.0461. If we shut the week above 0.051 like we’ve the final couple of weeks, that may present some energy from bulls and we could be marking out a really uneven native backside. It’s arduous to get enthusiastic about ETH when the BTC pair is wanting like this, however I’m certain we’ll get some sense of path within the subsequent couple of weeks…
Cardano:
ADA/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
ADA/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with ADA/USD, on the weekly we are able to see that worth has rallied again to the 200wMA, discovering resistance at $0.75 for 3 weeks earlier than rejecting and shifting decrease, now at marginally again beneath resistance at $0.60, which was performing as help. Now we have momentum exhaustion right here as nicely, supporting the concept Cardano is an underperformer right here, and I might anticipate worth to drift again in the direction of $0.47 if we shut beneath $0.60 this week. Dropping into the every day, we are able to see how $0.68 acted as reclaimed resistance after breaking again beneath it, and now construction is firmly bearish, with no signal of exhaustion simply but. If reject off of $0.60 as reclaimed resistance this week, I’m taking a look at a return to that 200dMA and prior resistance turned help at $0.47-0.49. If bulls by some means flip up right here, I believe that is solely an extended again above $0.68, seeking to purchase that as resistance turned help and commerce it increased into $0.90.
Turning to ADA/BTC, we are able to see that worth rejected at 1588 satoshis and has been trending decrease all 12 months, retracing the whole rally from the October 2023 backside again into help right here at 858,. Now that is way more supportive for some aid for Cardano, given the response off this degree late final 12 months, but when we shut the weekly beneath 858 that may be disastrous, with one other 20% drop into the following help at 700 satoshis. If we do discover help right here once more, which will present confluence if the Greenback pair can get again above that $0.68 degree for continuation increased.
Polygon:
MATIC/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
MATIC/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at MATIC/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that worth is sat on trendline help from the October 2023 backside and hovering above the 200wMA, having pushed beneath reclaimed help at $0.92 this week. MATIC bulls wish to see this space maintain agency and worth to push again above $0.92 for the weekly shut, which can then look extra like a sweep of native lows into main help and certain a higher-low type continuation in the direction of $1.31 and past. If, nonetheless, $0.92 begins to behave as resistance subsequent week, and we break beneath that trendline, I might anticipate to see one other close to 20% of draw back in the direction of $0.74 as the following main help. If we drop into the every day, we see related construction to ADA/USD with no indicators of pattern exhaustion simply but, opening up the probability of that bigger transfer decrease into $0.74, with the 200dMA and 360dMA hovering above that. If we are able to catch a bid right here and push again above $1, that’s a pleasant lengthy for the $1.31 retest, with a view to hedge there and reopen on acceptance above that degree.
Turning to MATIC/BTC, we are able to see simply how poorly this has carried out, breaking beneath multi-year help and turning it into resistance, then grinding decrease for weeks, now sat in no man’s land at 1350 satoshis. There isn’t any main help beneath this all the best way into 948. There are additionally no indicators but of pattern exhaustion right here. If something, you doubtless wish to maintain off any spot purchases till 1720 satoshis is reclaimed as help or worth trades into that 948 degree. Not enticing in any respect right here.
Optimism:
OP/USD
Day by day:
OP/BTC
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Focusing right here on OP/USD, given the comparatively quick price-history of Optimism, we are able to see that worth fashioned an all-time excessive in March round $4.92, from which level it has retraced, breaking again beneath prior highs turned resistance at $4.24 after which pushing into help at $3, above which it presently sits. Construction is bearish right here, as is momentum, however we’ve the beginnings of some exhaustion on the Superior Oscillator. Nonetheless, I do suppose this continues to puke in the direction of the 200dMA, doubtless sweeping the swing-low into $2.56 earlier than marking out a backside. So long as we don’t shut beneath $2.33, I believe this nonetheless simply seems like a broad vary above historic resistance turned help; shut beneath that and this seems way more bearish. If we are able to mark out a backside above $2.56, I’m on the lookout for $5.80 as the following goal for my spot holdings.
Casper:
CSPR/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
CSPR/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: If we start by taking a look at CSPR/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a broad vary for nearly two years now, with more moderen worth motion confined between help at $0.031 and help turned resistance at $0.055. We’re again on the backside of that shallower vary throughout the broader vary and that is largely simply chop at current. Casper was born within the bear market and has solely identified a downtrend and an extended flat consolidation, so it’s most likely price shopping for partials near vary help and including to your place on a clear weekly shut by $0.054, when you have elementary conviction on this challenge. Above $0.054, I believe the primary bull cycle is prone to start, and I wouldn’t expect something lower than $0.226 as a primary goal, however doubtless costs past $0.36 given it has by no means skilled a bull cycle.
Turning to CSPR/BTC, in contrast to the Greenback pair that is nonetheless in its long-term downtrend since inception, with latest worth motion breaking beneath prior all-time lows at 83 satoshis and pushing into 63, earlier than turning that into resistance and now sitting at 52 satoshis. Now we have the makings of minor pattern exhaustion right here however we’re very a lot in bearish worth discovery. I might be on the lookout for construction and momentum to point out us clear indicators of bullishness earlier than stepping in to be trustworthy. If we drop into the every day, this might take the type of a trendline breakout adopted by a reclaim of 63 satoshis as help, which might make for a pleasant entry. If we break beneath 52, there isn’t a realizing the place this stops.
Realio:
RIO/USD
Weekly:
Day by day:
RIO/BTC
Weekly:
Day by day:
Value:
Market Cap:
Ideas: Starting with RIO/USD, we are able to see from the weekly that the pair has been in a powerful uptrend since November 2022, persevering with to carry to a parabolic advance, with final week seeing the pair push by the ultimate resistance degree at $2.74 on large quantity into $5.61, however finally reject and shut again inside $2.73. Momentum indicators don’t present indicators on exhaustion right here and moderately I anticipate we see a few weeks of consolidation right here earlier than the breakout is validated and worth continues to run increased in the direction of the all-time highs at $10.72 within the subsequent couple of months. So long as the parabola holds, there isn’t a must anticipate something aside from what we’ve already been seeing. If we break the parabola, it’s doubtless we get a deeper correction in the direction of $0.99 earlier than any continuation.
Turning to RIO/BTC, we are able to see that weekly construction is firmly bullish and final week noticed worth shut by a cluster of resistance on nice quantity and with new highs on momentum indicators, discovering resistance round 5772 satoshis and now consolidating between there and reclaimed help at 1836. As talked about above, I might anticipate continued consolidation right here earlier than a weekly shut by 5772, which would be the catalyst for the steepest a part of the parabola, with no resistance between there and all-time highs. On this chart, that’s marked out as 96k satoshis, however I believe this can be a misprint – both method, above 6k satoshis, I believe you’re successfully in worth discovery mode for the BTC pair. So long as this holds above 1155 construction can be nonetheless bullish, so there may be loads of draw back we might see earlier than any break in construction.
And that concludes this week’s Market Outlook.
I hope you’ve discovered worth within the learn and thanks for supporting my work!
As ever, be happy to depart any feedback or questions beneath, or e-mail me straight at nik@altcointradershandbook.com.
