Top of today’s agenda is the monetary policy meeting of the National Bank of Poland (NBP). Economists at ING expect unchanged rates and EUR/PLN moving beyond the 4.720 level.
NBP ending the tightening cycle
“After last week’s surprisingly low inflation, it is hard to expect any outcome other than stable interest rates. Although we think the peak in inflation is still ahead and inflation will slow only very gradually next year, the prospect of a weak economic performance will prevail at the MPC and we expect the same story next year. However, the bigger focus will be on tomorrow’s press conference by Governor Adam Glapinski and any potential mention of interest rate cuts, which could be a red rag to a bull for the markets.”
“The gap between the zloty and the interest rate differential is the largest in the region at the moment and together with EUR/USD heading lower, this is not good news for FX. EUR/PLN is thus vulnerable, especially to the upside and we could see a move above the 4.720 level which was already tested on Monday.”