Next week, the Bank of England will have its monetary policy committee meeting. Analysts at Rabobank look for a 75 basis points rate hike to 3.00% from 2.25%. They explain that it would still be the largest rate hike of this cycle. They expect to see rates peaking at 4.75%.
“After the mini-Budget disaster of late-September, we shifted our call for the November MPC from +50 to +100 bps. We have dialled back our forecast to +75 bps, as most of the political and financial market upheaval has subsided. This is also the consensus among economists.”
“The central bank needs to show markets that it is cognizant that confidence in the UK’s institutional framework has been damaged, but there is no need for crisis management anymore. Still, a 75 bps hike would still be Britain’s largest of this cycle. We think it will also be a one-off, allowing the central bank to move back to a more gradual pace of 50 bps and then 25 bps rate increases this winter.”
“While inflation should remain around 10% in upcoming months, the outlook for growth has weakened markedly. Even as the August Monetary Policy Report was already sombre, forecasting a fifteen-month recession, we expect more of this gloominess rather than less.”