In Canada, August’s GDP rose by 0.1% according to data released on Friday, slightly above market consensus for a flat reading, while the advance estimate for September pointed to a 0.1% increase. Analysts at CIBC point out that while growth was fairly modest during the third quarter, it will need to slow further in the fourth quarter and early 2023 to help bring inflation back down to target. The need for a further deceleration supports the notion that while the Bank of Canada is close to the end of its rate hiking cycle, it isn’t done quite yet, they conclude.
“Including revisions, today’s data is a little stronger than we had expected and puts the third quarter growth roughly in line with the Bank of Canada forecast, but slightly above our estimate. While we will be revising our overall 2022 growth expectation to be a tad higher, this does not alter our view that the economy will stall in the months ahead, and the lack of momentum late in Q3 is aligned with that.”
“With these latest growth figures only slightly below estimates of potential growth, we will need to see this further slowing of the economy to bring inflation back to target. This supports the notion that while we are getting closer to the end of the hiking cycle, there is still a little left to do. We continue to expect that the Bank of Canada will hike by a further 50bps before pausing.”