Bitcoin, BTC/USD, Treasury Curve, China, Covid, Technical Outlook – Talking Points
- Bitcoin falls amid risk-off trading as traders gauge economic outlook
- Covid cases rise in China, prompting restrictions in Shanghai, elsewhere
- BTC/USD flirts with 20,000 level after prices fall more than 3% overnight
Asia-pacific markets face a risk-off open after renewed economic growth fears plagued European and US markets overnight. Bond traders moved into Treasuries, pushing yields lower. The yield spread between the 2-year and 10-year notes fell deeper into inversion. The US Dollar saw broad-based gains, with the DXY index hitting fresh yearly highs.
US-listed Chinese technology stocks came under heavy selling pressure in New York, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index falling more than 7% compared to the Nasdaq-100 Index’s 2.19% decline. Chinese regulators fined several companies on Sunday in a broad anti-trust action. The highly-transmissible Covid subvariant, BA.5, has surfaced across various Chinese cities, including Shanghai. Authorities are moving to conduct mass testing, but if cases continue to rise, it may lead to more restrictive measures.
Iron ore prices were lower in China, adding to the Australian Dollar’s risk-off woes. AUD/USD fell to its lowest level since June 2020. National Australia Bank’s business confidence survey for June is due out today. Traders are preparing for Australia’s jobs report due out later this week. Analysts expect to see 30k jobs added for June, according to a Bloomberg survey. A better-than-expected print may underpin the Australian Dollar, although Covid-related issues in China may take precedence.
Bitcoin prices fell alongside equities and risk-sensitive currencies. A Bloomberg MLIV Pulse survey revealed that a 60% majority of traders see prices falling to $10,000, while 40% see BTC hitting $30,000 first. The data shows that traders are bearish on the cryptocurrency’s path forward. Ethereum prices were nearly doubling the fall seen in BTC prices over the last 24 hours.
Notable Events for July 12:
- Japan – PPI (June)
- Philippines – Balance of Trade (May)
- Japan – 5-Year JGB Auction
- India – Industrial Production (May)
- India – Inflation Rate (June)
BTC/USD Technical Forecast
BTC/USD crossed below its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) overnight. Prices are testing the psychologically-important 20,000 level. A break lower may open the door for prices to test the June and July lows, which may offer an area of resistance. Bulls would need to reclaim the 20-day SMA before testing the 26-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which halted a rally over the weekend.
BTC/USD Daily Chart
Chart created with TradingView
— Written by Thomas Westwater, Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Thomas, use the comments section below or @FxWestwater on Twitter